International Trade Update
U.S.-India Talks Gain Momentum: On Dec. 11, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi released a social media post announcing that he spoke with President Donald Trump regarding U.S.-India bilateral trade relations. Prime Minister Modi characterized the conversation as “warm and engaging” while pledging that both countries “will continue to work together for global peace, stability, and prosperity.” Earlier in the week, President Trump mulled additional tariffs to address the alleged dumping of Indian rice, as two separate delegations of U.S. officials traveled to New Delhi.
Nonetheless, U.S.-India trade discussions appear to have advanced, as the Trump administration expresses optimism about the likelihood of reaching a deal. At a Dec. 9 Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer told lawmakers that India’s latest offer is “the best we’ve [the administration] ever received.” He called India’s agriculture market “very difficult to crack,” as the administration seeks to diversify foreign market access for American soybeans and grain sorghum, but commended the Indian trade team for being “quite forward-leaning.” Greer’s comments come as senior officials from USTR and the Department of State were in India this week.
Despite the apparent progress, the timeline for a deal to lower the current 50% tariff on most U.S. imports from India remains unclear.
USTR Announces Section 301 Tariffs Against Nicaragua: On Dec. 10, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) issued a notice to impose a phased-in Section 301 tariff on Nicaraguan goods. The tariff will be set at zero percent on Jan. 1, 2026, before increasing to 10% on Jan. 1, 2027, and 15% on Jan. 1, 2028. The tariff will apply to all goods not originating under the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) and stack on the 18% reciprocal tariff currently enforced against Nicaragua. The tariff determination is based upon a Section 301 investigation into Nicaragua initiated on Dec. 10, 2024. On Oct. 20, 2025, USTR released its initial findings, which concluded that Nicaragua’s policies and actions related to labor rights, human rights, and basic freedoms represent an unreasonable burden on U.S. commerce. To address these findings, the agency proposed imposing a 100% tariff on Nicaraguan imports and suspending Nicaragua’s benefits under CAFTA-DR. Following the receipt of public comments, USTR modified its final determination. The administration retains the authority to modify the rate and timeline of the impending tariff should Nicaragua fail to show meaningful progress to address human rights and labor concerns.
Ambassador Greer Outlines Trade Strategy at Atlantic Council Event: On Dec. 10, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke at an Atlantic Council event, focusing on the Trump administration’s strategy to reform the multilateral trading system. He explained that the administration’s top priority is reducing the trade deficit and countering unfair practices, emphasizing that, if the Supreme Court invalidates the imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), it will continue to pursue those goals through other authorities. Regarding China, Greer said the administration views its policy as pro-American rather than anti-Chinese and focuses on addressing global overcapacity. He argued that the United States is not pushing other countries to choose sides but has taken unilateral action due to the scale of the bilateral deficit and structural differences between the economies. Greer added that President Trump seeks a constructive and more balanced relationship with China and is open to agreements that share expectations explicitly, specifically as it relates to renegotiating the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Ambassador Greer Testifies Before Senate Appropriations Subcommittee: On Dec. 9, the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies held a hearing with U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer, focusing on the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policies. During the hearing, several Republicans raised concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on American exporters. Chairman Jerry Moran (R-KS) said he appreciates the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and ensure U.S. farmers and manufacturers can compete on a level playing field. However, he expressed concern about the resulting retaliatory tariffs and loss of U.S. market access. Greer emphasized that tariffs are positively impacting domestic supply chains and serving as valuable leverage in bilateral trade negotiations. In response to several Democratic senators’ questions regarding affordability, Greer added that tariffs do not increase prices and pointed to the administration’s move to provide tariff relief for goods that the United States cannot produce in bulk, such as bananas and coffee.
President Trump Threatens Increased Tariffs on Mexico: On Dec. 8, President Trump released a social media post, threatening to impose an additional 5% tariff on Mexican goods. Mexico is currently subject to a 25% trafficking tariff; however, the vast majority of Mexican imports enter the United States duty-free under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The president argued that Mexico is in violation of the 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty by withholding 800,000 acre-feet of water from the Rio Grande. President Trump stated, “The U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after … I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.” In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum told reporters that the delay in water delivery “is not a matter of ill will on Mexico’s part” but is due to infrastructure limitations affecting the pipeline system used to transfer water. As of this writing, the Trump administration has not taken formal action to increase tariffs on Mexico.
