On November 1, the White House released a fact sheet outlining the U.S.-China “trade and economic deal” reached during a long-awaited meeting held between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week. President Trump initially outlined the details of the trade deal in a social media post, which the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) similarly confirmed in a Q&A.

The fact sheet provides greater details on the respective commitments made by both the United States and China. The table below outlines the respective commitments made by both nations based on the White House fact sheet and the Chinese MOFCOM Q&A.

Impact on Tariff Rates

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that he “expects [the leaders] will exchange signatures, possibly, as soon as next week.” Once the Trump administration takes action to lower the trafficking tariff to 10%, many Chinese goods will be subject to a 45% tariff above preexisting “Most Favored Nation” rates. The 45% figure combines the 10% baseline tariff, the remaining 10% fentanyl tariff, and a tariff of up to 25% levied under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 during the first Trump administration.

President Trump has described tariffs on China as falling from 57% to 47%, a figure that appears to reflect a calculation of the average tariff rate imposed on Chinese imports.

China also remains subject to product-specific tariffs levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as well as certain Antidumping and Countervailing Duties (AD/CVD). Determining the duty due on any specific import requires the importer to consider the specific duties that apply to the item in question.

Although the president has committed to lowering the trafficking tariff on Chinese goods, there remains potential for future tariff increases. On October 24, United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer announced the initiation of a Section 301 investigation of China’s implementation of the Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the People’s Republic of China (“Phase One Agreement”). He has since made clear that this investigation will move forward, despite the progress made in the Trump-Xi meeting.

If USTR determines that China failed to uphold its commitments under the Phase One Agreement, Section 301 requires the imposition of mandatory U.S. trade restrictions, including by way of tariffs. Furthermore, if the Supreme Court ultimately rules against the second Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the Section 301 investigation could form a separate basis to reimpose tariffs at similar levels.

An Informal “Truce”

While Secretary Bessent’s comments suggest the two sides could take steps to formalize the understanding in the coming weeks, at this point, the framework comes as an informal political agreement, not a formal trade deal. The fact sheet notably includes several commitments that are yet to be confirmed by the Chinese government, such as suspending investigations into U.S. semiconductor companies and lowering tariffs on American agricultural products.

Ultimately, the impact of this informal framework will depend on the extent to which each government believes the other is upholding its commitments. The agreement can be described as a “truce” that does not fully resolve any issue between the two countries. However, Chinese confirmation of President Trump’s plan to visit China early next year creates the potential for a period of relative stability between the two geopolitical rivals. Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested that the framework will hold over the next year, at which time the nations will return to the negotiating table.